Government quota
TAMIL_NADU_GOVERNMENT_QUOTA_RANK
44 R3→Stray comparisons
Median absolute movement 1,079 · P90 absolute 2,999
AdmiScan Data Moat #9
Tamil Nadu NEET 2025 stray-round behaviour: late-round cutoffs did not move as one market
This study uses verified MBBS cutoff rows from Round 3 and later Tamil Nadu stray rounds. Government quota, government-school 7.5% reservation and management/minority quota ranks are analysed independently.
The headline finding
Late-round movement was materially larger in management/minority ranks than in government quota. Government-school 7.5% had no exact R3-to-stray comparison in this evidence, so it is correctly reported as not comparable—not guessed.
Three independent rank populations
Government-school 7.5% reservation
TAMIL_NADU_GOVERNMENT_SCHOOL_7_5_RANK
No comparable stray key
The 7.5% series has R3 inventory but no exact R3→Stray pair in this export
Management / minority quota
TAMIL_NADU_MANAGEMENT_QUOTA_RANK
23 R3→Stray comparisons
Median absolute movement 3,486 · P90 absolute 9,389
Stray-round volatility
Comparable means the exact same rank metric, college, MBBS programme, seat group and category appears in both rounds. This table summarizes absolute movement; the signed direction of R3→Stray changes is reported separately below.
| Rank system | Transition | Comparable | Unchanged | Median abs. | P90 abs. | Median abs. % | P90 abs. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government quota | R3 → Stray | 44 | 0.0% | 1,079 | 2,999 | 11.14% | 29.17% |
| Government quota | Stray → Special Stray | 2 | 0.0% | 1,965 | 3,416 | 16.60% | 29.41% |
| Management / minority | R3 → Stray | 23 | 0.0% | 3,486 | 9,389 | 35.79% | 64.29% |
| Management / minority | Stray → Special Stray | 8 | 0.0% | 10,548 | 19,675 | 42.93% | 77.19% |
Absolute volatility vs signed direction
The volatility table above uses absolute movement, so a rank change of −500 and +500 both contribute 500 to that statistic. The signed view below keeps direction: a positive value means the closing-rank number increased within the same rank system, while a negative value means it decreased.
| Rank system | Comparable | Median signed delta | Median signed % | Relaxed | Tightened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government quota | 44 | +928 | +9.67% | 40 | 4 |
| Management / minority | 23 | +3,148 | +23.41% | 21 | 2 |
This is why the government-quota median absolute movement of 1,079 and median signed delta of +928 are both valid: they answer different questions. The same distinction explains 3,486 absolute versus +3,148 signed for the management/minority sample.
Government quota
Among 44 exact R3→Stray keys, the median absolute movement was 1,079 and the p90 was 2,999. Forty moved higher and four moved lower.
7.5% reservation
The dataset has 233 verified R3 rows, but no exact later stray key. This absence is itself an important coverage boundary.
Management / minority
Median absolute movement rose from 3,486 in R3→Stray to 10,548 in Stray→Special Stray, with absolute p90 values of 9,389 and 19,675.
Largest exact-key movements
These examples are descriptive observations from the published evidence, not promises about future allotment.
| System | Transition | College | Category | From | To | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | R3 → Stray | Swamy Vivekanandha Medical College, Namakkal | SCA | 19,436 | 24,631 | +5,195 |
| Government | R3 → Stray | PSG Institute of Medical Sciences, Coimbatore | SCA | 16,266 | 21,181 | +4,915 |
| Management | R3 → Stray | Dhanalakshmi Srinivasan Medical College, Perambalur | Management quota | 13,127 | 24,497 | +11,370 |
| Management | R3 → Stray | Panimalar Medical College, Chennai | Christian minority | 15,841 | 5,468 | −10,373 |
| Management | Stray → Special Stray | Kanyakumari Medical Mission Research Center | Management quota | 26,133 | 4,343 | −21,790 |
How to use this research
Treat Round 3 as a historical anchor, then read the stray-round evidence by quota and category. Do not combine government and management ranks, and do not turn a late-round movement percentile into an admission guarantee.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Tamil Nadu stray-round study measure?
It compares the published closing rank for the same verified MBBS college, programme, seat group and category between the Round 3 baseline and later stray rounds, and separately compares Stray with Special Stray where an exact key exists.
Why is government-school 7.5% not shown with a stray movement statistic?
The evidence export contains 233 verified Round 3 rows for that rank system but no exact comparable later stray key. Reporting a movement statistic would therefore be misleading.
Why are management movements larger?
The management/minority comparison population is smaller and uses a different ranking system and seat mix. Its results must not be pooled with government-quota ranks.
Can this predict Tamil Nadu 2026 stray cutoffs?
No. This is a historical 2025 description. Seat matrices, rules and applicant behaviour can change in a later counselling year.
Source: verified Tamil Nadu MBBS 2025 published cutoff evidence. Duplicate exact keys: 0. Later stray rounds are shown only where an exact comparison exists. Historical research; not counselling advice or a guarantee.