Government seats
Of 109 exact R1→R2 comparisons, 102 closing-rank numbers increased and seven decreased. The p90 absolute movement was 4,333.
AdmiScan Data Moat #10
Uttar Pradesh NEET 2025 cutoff opportunity: government and private rounds moved very differently
This study compares the published closing rank for the exact same MBBS college, NEET AIR metric, seat group and category between rounds. Government, private and minority results are never combined into one movement statistic.
The headline finding
From Round 1 to Round 2, the median government-seat movement was 1,505 ranks. The private-seat median was 110,850 ranks—more than 70 times larger. This is why a single pooled “UP cutoff movement” number would be misleading.
Verified round inventory
The evidence contains five distinct source-round labels. R4S and Special Stray remain separate; they are not collapsed into one generic stray round.
| Round | Rows | Colleges | Seat-group coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 198 | 71 | Government, private, minority |
| Round 2 | 156 | 71 | Government, private, minority |
| Stray | 36 | 31 | Government, private, minority |
| R4S | 229 | 47 | Government only in this export |
| Special Stray | 14 | 14 | 13 private rows and 1 government row |
Round 1 to Round 2 movement by seat group
“Higher” means the numerical closing rank increased; “lower” means it decreased. Retention is the share of Round 1 exact keys that were also present in Round 2.
| Seat group | Comparable | Median abs. | P90 abs. | Higher / lower / unchanged | Retention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 109 | 1,505 | 4,333 | 102 / 7 / 0 | 69.4% |
| Private | 36 | 110,850 | 162,332 | 35 / 0 / 1 | 100.0% |
| Minority | 4 | 99,647 | 120,043 | 4 / 0 / 0 | 80.0% |
Minority results use only four comparable colleges, so they should be treated as a small-sample observation.
Private seats
All 36 Round 1 keys remained present in Round 2. Thirty-five increased, one was unchanged, and the maximum movement was 256,076.
Retention matters
Government retention was 69.4% versus 100% for private seats. A missing exact key is not treated as a cutoff movement.
Government movement differed by category
| Category | Comparable | Median abs. | P90 abs. | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBC | 31 | 795 | 2,440 | 3,172 |
| EWS | 22 | 922 | 2,296 | 3,048 |
| GEN | 31 | 1,794 | 2,546 | 2,800 |
| SC | 25 | 4,269 | 8,405 | 10,121 |
What happened in the later rounds?
- Stray → R4S, government: 12 exact comparisons across 10 colleges; 10 were unchanged, while two ST comparisons moved. The median absolute movement was zero.
- Stray → Special Stray, private: 13 exact comparisons; nine moved to a lower numerical closing rank and four moved higher. Median absolute movement was 22,669.
- Coverage boundary: R4S contained government rows only in this export. Special Stray contained 13 private rows and one government row, so those labels must not be treated as one common market.
Largest R1-to-R2 private-seat movements
These are exact historical comparisons, included to show the range behind the summary—not to predict a future allotment.
| College | Seat group / category | R1 | R2 | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shri Ram Murti Medical Sciences, Bareilly | Private / GEN | 177,049 | 433,125 | +256,076 |
| Rohilkhand Medical College, Bareilly | Private / GEN | 306,394 | 500,475 | +194,081 |
| Rajshree Medical Research Institute, Bareilly | Private / GEN | 403,442 | 573,777 | +170,335 |
| Noida International Institute of Medical Sciences | Private / GEN | 258,874 | 427,750 | +168,876 |
Methodology and limits
The analysis uses 84 compact evidence rows generated from verified 2025 UP MBBS cutoffs. Every movement requires the same NEET AIR metric, college, programme, seat group and category in both rounds. Exact duplicate keys: zero. Median and p90 movement are calculated separately for each seat group. Historical movement does not guarantee a 2026 result.
Frequently asked questions
How much did UP NEET government MBBS cutoffs move from Round 1 to Round 2 in 2025?
Across 109 exact government-seat comparisons, the median absolute movement was 1,505 NEET AIR positions and the p90 movement was 4,333. Results are historical and category-specific, not a forecast.
How did private MBBS cutoffs change from UP NEET Round 1 to Round 2?
Across 36 exact private-seat comparisons, the median absolute movement was 110,850 ranks and the p90 was 162,332. Thirty-five closing-rank numbers increased, one was unchanged and none decreased.
Why are government and private cutoff movements shown separately?
They represent different seat groups with very different rank ranges and behaviour. Combining them into one median would hide the result students actually need.
Does a higher closing-rank number guarantee admission in the next round?
No. It only describes how far the published 2025 closing rank extended for an exact college, seat-group and category key. Seats, rules and applicant choices can change each year.
Source: verified Uttar Pradesh NEET 2025 published MBBS cutoff evidence, based on UP NEET counselling data. Rank metric: NEET AIR. Duplicate exact keys: 0. Historical research; not counselling advice or an admission guarantee.