AdmiScan Cutoff Intelligence
Karnataka NEET 2025 MBBS Cutoff Movement: Round 1 vs Round 2 vs Round 3
AdmiScan analysed 3,561 MBBS cutoff observations across 65 college codes, 75 category labels and four seat types. The goal is not to predict a seat from one historical number, but to measure how much closing ranks moved when the exact college, category and seat-type key could be compared between counselling rounds.
MBBS observations
3,561
Historical 2025 cutoff rows included in the MBBS analysis.
College codes
65
Distinct MBBS college codes represented in the dataset.
Category labels
75
Category labels are preserved instead of collapsed into broad groups.
Seat types
4
Government-quota, private-quota, NRI and other seat-type records.
The strongest signal: Round 1 → Round 2 movement was much larger in private-quota records
Among exact comparable records, 66.9% of MBBS-GOVT keys changed between R1 and R2, compared with 95.2% of MBBS-PRIV keys. The median signed movement was +3,323 ranks for MBBS-GOVT and +20,889 for MBBS-PRIV. “Higher” here means a numerically higher closing rank for the same key; it is not an admission guarantee.
| Seat type | Comparable keys | Changed | Direction | Median signed move | 90th pct. absolute move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBBS-GOVT | 1,444 | 966 (66.9%) | 966 higher · 0 lower · 478 unchanged | +3,323 | 13,206 |
| MBBS-PRIV | 124 | 118 (95.2%) | 118 higher · 0 lower · 6 unchanged | +20,889 | 91,865 |
Why the largest movement is not the headline
One MBBS-GOVT PHM observation moved by +410,170 ranks between R1 and R2. Rare categories and quota combinations can create very large movements, so AdmiScan uses medians, percentiles and sample sizes for the main interpretation instead of presenting a single extreme value as “typical.”
Round 2 → Round 3 became more volatile — and direction mattered
All 186 comparable MBBS-GOVT observations changed from R2 to R3: 184 moved to a numerically higher closing rank and two moved lower. All 79 comparable MBBS-PRIV observations also changed, but the direction was mixed: 52 higher and 27 lower. The median absolute movement was 16,142 ranks for MBBS-GOVT and 17,955 for MBBS-PRIV.
| Seat type | Comparable keys | Changed | Direction | Median signed move | Median absolute move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBBS-GOVT | 186 | 186 (100%) | 184 higher · 2 lower | +16,007 | 16,142 |
| MBBS-PRIV | 79 | 79 (100%) | 52 higher · 27 lower | +6,636 | 17,955 |
Examples of large exact-key movements
These are evidence examples, not a ranking of colleges. Each row preserves the seat type and category because comparing the college name alone would be misleading.
Round 1 → Round 2
| Seat type | College | Category | R1 closing | R2 closing | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBBS-GOVT | SDM College of Medical Sciences and Hospital | PHM | 640,523 | 1,050,693 | +410,170 |
| MBBS-GOVT | Chitradurga Medical College and Research Institute | JK | 133,965 | 237,443 | +103,478 |
| MBBS-GOVT | Hassan Institute of Medical Sciences | JK | 90,247 | 186,874 | +96,627 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Sri Madhusudan Sai Institute of Medical Sciences and Research | GMPH | 242,266 | 429,025 | +186,759 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Adichunchanagiri Institute of Medical Sciences | GMPH | 240,945 | 426,418 | +185,473 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Sapthagiri Institute of Medical Sciences | GMPH | 249,539 | 428,322 | +178,783 |
Round 2 → Round 3
| Seat type | College | Category | R2 closing | R3 closing | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBBS-GOVT | Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Institute of Medical Science | SCG | 64,344 | 210,755 | +146,411 |
| MBBS-GOVT | Mandya Institute of Medical Sciences | SCG | 91,295 | 223,243 | +131,948 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Srinivasa Institute of Medical Research Center Srinivas Nagar Mangalore | GMPH | 280,277 | 750,429 | +470,152 |
What this means for counselling decisions
Do not treat last round's cutoff as a fixed boundary. The dataset shows meaningful movement even when college, seat type and category are held constant.
Use category-specific evidence. Large movements can be concentrated in uncommon categories, so broad “college cutoff” summaries can hide important differences.
Private-quota R1→R2 movement was especially broad. 118 of 124 comparable MBBS-PRIV keys changed, with a median signed movement of +20,889 ranks.
Later-round direction can reverse. In R2→R3 MBBS-PRIV records, 52 keys moved higher and 27 moved lower.
Methodology and limitations
AdmiScan compared closing ranks only when the college code, seat type and category matched across adjacent rounds. This avoids treating two different quota/category records as the same cutoff.
The report uses the dataset's seat-type labels MBBS-GOVT, MBBS-PRIV, MBBS-NRI and MBBS-OTHERS. These labels describe the seat record; they are not a statement about college ownership.
This page analyses historical 2025 observations. It does not predict 2026 cutoffs, guarantee admission or replace current KEA counselling notices, seat matrices or allotment results.
Frequently asked questions
Does a higher closing rank mean admission became easier?
Not automatically. It means the observed closing rank became numerically higher for that exact college, category and seat-type key. Seat matrix changes, candidate behaviour and category-specific rules can all affect movement.
Can I use 2025 movement to predict my 2026 Karnataka NEET seat?
No. This is historical evidence, not a 2026 prediction. Use it to understand volatility and round behaviour, then check the current KEA rules, seat matrix and live allotment data.
Why does AdmiScan separate MBBS-GOVT and MBBS-PRIV?
Those are seat-type labels in the AdmiScan dataset. They describe the quota or seat record being compared; they should not be read as a statement about who owns the college.
Why are some extreme movements not used as headline averages?
Rare categories and quota types can move by hundreds of thousands of ranks. AdmiScan reports medians and sample sizes so individual outliers do not distort the typical pattern.
Use the historical evidence in your own Karnataka NEET decision
Historical movement is most useful when combined with your rank, category, seat preferences and current counselling round.