AdmiScan Round Volatility Intelligence
Karnataka NEET 2025 MBBS Cutoff Volatility: which profiles moved less or more between rounds?
AdmiScan analysed 1,912 exact comparable cutoff keys across 64 college codes, 75 categories and four seat types. The aim is to measure observed round-to-round movement without turning historical stability into a prediction.
Lower movement does not mean predictable
A college-seat profile can have a median movement of zero because many category keys were unchanged while another category moved sharply. AdmiScan therefore reports median, p90, maximum movement and sample size together. These are lower- or higher-movement historical profiles, not admission forecasts.
Round-level volatility by seat type
| Comparison | Seat type | Comparable | Unchanged | Higher / lower | Median abs. | Median % | P90 abs. | P90 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 → R2 | MBBS-GOVT | 1,444 | 478 | 966 / 0 | 3,323 | 4.77% | 13,206 | 22.86% |
| R1 → R2 | MBBS-PRIV | 124 | 6 | 118 / 0 | 20,889 | 17.57% | 91,865 | 66.34% |
| R2 → R3 | MBBS-GOVT | 186 | 0 | 184 / 2 | 16,142 | 19.54% | 35,887 | 39.17% |
| R2 → R3 | MBBS-PRIV | 79 | 0 | 52 / 27 | 17,955 | 15.48% | 1,59,732 | 50.35% |
Lower median observed movement
College-level profiles below have at least five comparable exact keys. A zero median does not mean every category was unchanged, so p90 and maximum movement remain visible.
| Seat type | College | Comparable | Median abs. | Median % | P90 abs. | Max abs. | Unchanged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBBS-GOVT | ESI Medical College | 28 | 0 | 0.00% | 9,375 | 22,287 | 15 |
| MBBS-GOVT | BGS Global Institute of Medical Sciences | 25 | 0 | 0.00% | 16,688 | 22,104 | 13 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Shymanuru Shivashankarappa Institute Of Medical Sciences | 5 | 3,950 | 4.11% | 15,732 | 21,039 | 0 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Jaya Jagadguru Murugharajendra Medical College | 5 | 3,857 | 4.78% | 16,159 | 18,994 | 0 |
Higher median observed movement
These profiles ranked higher by median percentage movement among profiles meeting the five-key threshold. They show historical volatility, not future behaviour.
| Seat type | College | Comparable | Median abs. | Median % | P90 abs. | Max abs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBBS-GOVT | Bangalore Medical College | 34 | 1,243 | 22.43% | 21,584 | 96,126 |
| MBBS-GOVT | Bidar Institute of Medical Sciences | 54 | 8,640 | 15.36% | 34,467 | 68,895 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Srinivasa Institute of Medical Research Center Srinivas Nagar Mangalore | 6 | 2,47,650 | 135.50% | 4,42,578 | 4,70,152 |
| MBBS-PRIV | Sri Madhusudan Sai Institute of Medical Sciences and Research | 6 | 1,38,755 | 64.41% | 1,80,803 | 1,86,759 |
Exact-key examples: why category context matters
These examples preserve category and seat type. Comparing only the college name would hide the counselling key that moved.
| Comparison | Seat type | College | Category | From | To | Movement | % move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 → R2 | MBBS-GOVT | Mandya Institute of Medical Sciences | 3AH | 21,661 | 49,506 | +27,845 | 128.55% |
| R1 → R2 | MBBS-GOVT | Hassan Institute of Medical Sciences | JK | 90,247 | 1,86,874 | +96,627 | 107.07% |
| R1 → R2 | MBBS-NRI | Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Medical College | NRI | 10,13,559 | 5,02,184 | −5,11,375 | 50.45% |
What students should take from this
One previous cutoff is not a certainty. Even profiles with low median movement can contain category-specific jumps.
Later rounds can behave differently. R2→R3 MBBS-GOVT had a median absolute movement of 16,142 versus 3,323 in R1→R2.
Private-quota dispersion can be wide. R1→R2 MBBS-PRIV p90 absolute movement was 91,865 ranks.
Check your exact category and seat type. College-level summaries are context, not substitutes for exact category evidence.
Frequently asked questions
Does low median movement mean a college cutoff is predictable?
No. A low median only describes the middle observed movement across comparable category-round keys. The same college can still have individual categories with much larger movement, which is why AdmiScan also shows p90 and maximum movement.
Why use percentage movement as well as rank movement?
A movement of 20,000 ranks can mean something very different when the starting cutoff is 25,000 versus 10 lakh. Percentage movement gives relative context while absolute movement preserves the actual rank change.
Why require at least five comparable keys for college-level profiles?
The threshold reduces the chance that one or two unusual category observations dominate a college-seat profile. It does not remove all uncertainty, so sample size and tail movement remain visible.
Can 2025 volatility be used as a 2026 prediction?
No. This is historical analysis. Current seat matrices, candidate behaviour and counselling rules can change, so 2025 movement should be used as context rather than as a forecast.