Phase 1 → Phase 2
315 of 448 relaxed
70.3% of exact matched keys moved to a numerically higher closing state rank, 133 were unchanged and none tightened. Median absolute movement was 414.5 positions and p90 was 2,616.2.
AdmiScan Data Moat #16
Kerala NEET 2025 MBBS cutoff movement: Phase 1 vs Phase 2 vs Phase 3
Kerala's 2025 MBBS last-rank evidence shows two different counselling patterns. Phase 1→2 was a broad relaxation phase, while Phase 2→3 was mostly stable across exact matched college-seat-group-category keys.
920
exact adjacent-phase matches
70.3%
P1→P2 matches that relaxed
57.0%
P2→P3 matches unchanged
5
seat groups represented
Important: these are Kerala State Medical Rank positions, not NEET AIR
CEE Kerala publishes a Kerala State Medical Rank List based on NEET (UG) 2025 rank. The last-rank values analysed here use that Kerala state-rank system. A movement from 5,000 to 7,000 therefore means a relaxation of 2,000 Kerala state-rank positions; it must not be described as a 2,000-position NEET All India Rank movement.
The main 2025 finding
Phase 2 → Phase 3
269 of 472 unchanged
57.0% of exact matches did not move, 200 relaxed and only 3 tightened. The median absolute movement was zero, although the p90 remained 1,008 positions and the largest exact movement was 7,126.
Transition-level evidence
| Transition | Exact matches | Colleges | Median absolute | p90 absolute | Relaxed | Tightened | Unchanged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1→P2 | 448 | 32 | 414.5 | 2,616.2 | 315 | 0 | 133 |
| P2→P3 | 472 | 34 | 0 | 1,008 | 200 | 3 | 269 |
Seat-group movement was not uniform
The same phase transition behaved very differently across Government, State Merit, NRI, All India Merit and Minority groups. Median and p90 values below are absolute Kerala state-rank movements.
| Seat group | P1→P2 matched | P1→P2 median | P1→P2 p90 | P2→P3 matched | P2→P3 median | P2→P3 p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 190 | 0 | 762.1 | 211 | 0 | 209 |
| State Merit | 197 | 864 | 2,215 | 200 | 91.5 | 1,293.2 |
| NRI | 28 | 6,984 | 8,944.4 | 28 | 82.5 | 3,079.9 |
| All India Merit | 20 | 520 | 939.2 | 20 | 228.5 | 463.3 |
| Minority | 13 | 1,625 | 2,017.4 | 13 | 592 | 1,517.4 |
The strongest Phase 1→2 median movement was in the NRI group: 6,984 positions across 28 exact matches. Government matches had a zero median in both transitions, but that does not mean every Government category stayed fixed—the p90 and maximum values show a non-zero tail.
Selected college-level matched profiles
These examples have at least 10 exact comparisons in each adjacent-phase transition. They illustrate why one Kerala medical college should not inherit another college's historical movement assumptions.
| College | Code | P1→P2 matched | P1→P2 median | P1→P2 p90 | P2→P3 matched | P2→P3 median | P2→P3 p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Azhar Medical college, Thodupuzha | AAM | 15 | 1,572 | 3,682.2 | 15 | 885 | 1,630.8 |
| Azeezia Institute of Medi Science, Meyyannoor, Kollam | AZC | 10 | 1,545.5 | 4,236.2 | 10 | 1,072 | 2,018.9 |
| SUT Accademy of Medical Sciences, Thiruvananthapuram | SUC | 15 | 1,450 | 3,017.4 | 15 | 726 | 2,149 |
| Palakkad Institute of Medical Sciences, Walayar | PIM | 15 | 1,363 | 3,195 | 15 | 326 | 973.8 |
| Sree Narayana Institute of Medical Sciences, Chalakka, Ernakulam. | SIM | 15 | 1,356 | 2,769.6 | 15 | 0 | 1,304.2 |
| Karuna Medical College, Vilayodi, Palakkad | KMM | 11 | 1,241 | 2,245 | 11 | 841 | 1,937 |
| P K Das Institute of Medical Sciences, Ottapalam | KDM | 15 | 1,116 | 3,017 | 15 | 396 | 1,078 |
| KMCT Medical College, Mukkom, Kozikkode | KCM | 15 | 875 | 1,905.2 | 15 | 246 | 1,717.2 |
Largest exact P1→P2 movements in the evidence
| College | Seat group / category | Earlier phase | Later phase | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jubilee Mission Medical College, Thrisur | NRI / NC | 13,510 | 24,043 | +10,533 |
| Palakkad Institute of Medical Sciences, Walayar | NRI / NR | 35,067 | 44,673 | +9,606 |
| Karuna Medical College, Vilayodi, Palakkad | NRI / NR | 33,348 | 42,368 | +9,020 |
| Amala Institute of Medical Sciences, Thrissur | NRI / NC | 15,731 | 24,643 | +8,912 |
| Govt. Medical College, Kottayam | Government / PD | 30,821 | 37,194 | +6,373 |
Large exact movements still existed in P2→P3
A zero overall median does not mean every key stopped moving. These tail examples are why AdmiScan keeps p90 and maximum context beside the median.
| College | Seat group / category | Earlier phase | Later phase | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUT Accademy of Medical Sciences, Thiruvananthapuram | NRI / NR | 35,491 | 42,617 | +7,126 |
| KMCT Medical College, Mukkom, Kozikkode | State Merit / BX | 6,124 | 11,449 | +5,325 |
| Malabar Medical College Hospital, Kozhikkode | State Merit / EW | 11,986 | 17,273 | +5,287 |
| Mount Zion Medical College, Pathanamthitta | NRI / NR | 41,217 | 44,673 | +3,456 |
| Govt. Medical College, Parippally, Kollam | Government / PD | 41,059 | 43,947 | +2,888 |
Evidence scope
- • Phase 1: 448 verified MBBS cutoff rows across 32 colleges, 29 categories and 5 seat groups.
- • Phase 2: 473 verified MBBS cutoff rows across 34 colleges, 29 categories and 5 seat groups.
- • Phase 3: 486 verified MBBS cutoff rows across 35 colleges, 30 categories and 5 seat groups.
- • Exact adjacent-phase matches: 448 for P1→P2 and 472 for P2→P3.
- • Duplicate exact college-program-seat-group-category-phase keys: zero.
Methodology and limitations
Matching requires the same college code, MBBS programme, seat group and category in two adjacent phases. If an exact combination is absent from either phase, AdmiScan does not create a comparison for it.
“Relaxed” means the later closing Kerala State Medical Rank is numerically higher. “Tightened” means it is numerically lower. “Unchanged” means the same closing state rank appears in both phases.
The official CEE Kerala 2025 medical last-rank page publishes First, Second and Third Phase MBBS/BDS last-rank tables. The official medical rank list is titled Kerala State Medical Rank List - 2025 and states that it is based on NEET (UG) 2025 rank.
Historical phase movement is not a forecast, admission probability or guarantee. Verify the current rank list, category rules, seat matrix and allotment documents with the Commissioner for Entrance Examinations, Kerala.
Frequently asked questions
Are Kerala MBBS last ranks the same as NEET All India Rank?
No. This analysis uses Kerala State Medical Rank. CEE Kerala's 2025 medical rank list is based on NEET (UG) 2025 rank, but it separately publishes a State Rank. The movements on this page are state-rank positions, not NEET AIR positions.
Which Kerala MBBS phase changed more in 2025?
Phase 1 to Phase 2 showed broader movement: 315 of 448 exact matched keys relaxed and the median absolute movement was 414.5 state-rank positions. From Phase 2 to Phase 3, 269 of 472 exact matches were unchanged and the median absolute movement was zero.
Did Kerala MBBS cutoffs stop moving in Phase 3?
No. Although 57.0% of exact Phase 2 to Phase 3 matches were unchanged, the p90 absolute movement was 1,008 state-rank positions and the largest observed exact movement was 7,126.
Which Kerala MBBS seat group moved the most from Phase 1 to Phase 2?
In this matched sample, NRI seats had the largest median absolute Phase 1 to Phase 2 movement at 6,984 Kerala state-rank positions across 28 exact matches. That is historical evidence, not a forecast.
How does AdmiScan compare Kerala counselling phases?
A comparison is created only when the same college code, MBBS programme, seat group and category appear in both adjacent phases. Missing combinations are not manufactured, and duplicate exact keys were zero in this evidence set.
Use the Kerala NEET admission audit, examine the Kerala college-level volatility study, compare other state-level evidence in AdmiScan Research, and read the methodology before using historical cutoff movement in a counselling choice list.