AdmiScan Maharashtra NEET Research
Maharashtra NEET 2025 cutoff volatility: which rounds, categories and colleges moved more?
AdmiScan analysed 2,420 comparable round transitions across 47 colleges, 38 categories and MBBS + BDS. We use unchanged share, median movement, p90 movement and maximum movement instead of calling one cutoff “stable”.
Lower movement is not the same as predictable
Every figure describes 2025 only. College profiles require at least five comparable exact keys and category profiles require at least ten. Lower observed movement is not a guarantee, and a numerically higher closing rank does not by itself mean admission became easier.
Programme-level volatility
| Rounds | Programme | Comparable | Unchanged | Median abs. | P90 abs. | Median % | P90 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 → R2 | MBBS | 1,095 | 444 (40.5%) | 1,182 | 29,760 | 2.54% | 33.42% |
| R2 → R3 | MBBS | 1,105 | 808 (73.1%) | 0 | 4,036 | 0.00% | 7.41% |
| R1 → R2 | BDS | 111 | 24 (21.6%) | 7,671 | 36,040 | 5.67% | 23.92% |
| R2 → R3 | BDS | 109 | 63 (57.8%) | 0 | 21,424 | 0.00% | 14.28% |
Category profiles: typical movement versus tail movement
These category profiles have at least ten comparable exact keys. PWD-OPEN had a median absolute R1→R2 movement of 1,47,261 and p90 of 4,24,839, while some other categories were unchanged across nearly all comparable keys.
| Profile | Rounds | Category | Sample | Unchanged | Median | P90 | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower observed movement | R1 → R2 | DEF2 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lower observed movement | R2 → R3 | NTB | 40 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Higher observed movement | R1 → R2 | PWD-OPEN | 40 | 3 | 1,47,261 | 4,24,839 | 5,96,933 |
| Higher observed movement | R2 → R3 | OPEN (W) | 41 | 9 | 1,303 | 4,213 | 5,501 |
| Higher observed movement | R2 → R3 | OPEN | 42 | 4 | 1,232 | 2,896 | 3,472 |
College profiles with sample size and tail context
| Profile | Rounds | Programme | College | Sample | Unchanged | Median | P90 | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower observed movement | R1 → R2 | MBBS | GMC JALNA | 24 | 16 | 0 | 3,310 | 12,757 |
| Higher observed movement | R1 → R2 | MBBS | MGIMS MC SEVAGRAM, WARDHA | 12 | 2 | 5,830 | 40,365 | 42,666 |
| Higher observed movement | R1 → R2 | MBBS | RGMC KALVA THANE | 27 | 6 | 5,525 | 79,157 | 7,00,651 |
| Lower observed movement | R2 → R3 | MBBS | B. J. MEDICAL COLLEGE PUNE | 33 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4,639 |
A key 2025 pattern
MBBS R2→R3 was quieter in the middle of the distribution: 808 of 1,105 keys were unchanged and median movement was zero. Yet OPEN(W) still had a median movement of 1,303 ranks across 41 comparable keys. This is why AdmiScan separates median behaviour from tail behaviour.
Frequently asked questions
Which Maharashtra NEET round was quieter in 2025?
For MBBS, Round 2 to Round 3 showed lower observed movement than Round 1 to Round 2: 808 of 1,105 comparable keys were unchanged and median absolute movement was zero. This is historical evidence, not a forecast.
Does lower observed movement mean a college or category is predictable?
No. Lower observed movement in 2025 does not make a future cutoff safe or predictable. Seat matrices, candidate choices and reservation rules can change.
Why show p90 as well as the median?
The median describes the middle of the distribution, while p90 reveals tail movement. A zero median can coexist with meaningful movement in a smaller subset of exact keys.
Why treat PWD categories separately?
Several PWD categories show very large 2025 movements. They are real observations but narrower category populations, so they should not represent the typical statewide pattern.