AdmiScan Maharashtra NEET Research
Maharashtra NEET 2025 MBBS & BDS Cutoff Movement: what changed from Round 1 to Round 3?
AdmiScan analysed 2,420 comparable round transitions across 47 colleges, 38 categories and two programmes: MBBS and BDS. The analysis uses verified 2025 Maharashtra NEET government-seat closing ranks and keeps programme and category context intact.
Extreme movements are not typical movements
Some exact category keys moved by several lakh ranks, particularly in narrow categories such as PWD. Those are real observations, but they should not represent the typical student experience. The headline analysis therefore uses median and p90 movement with sample sizes, while extreme examples appear separately.
MBBS and BDS movement by counselling round
| Rounds | Programme | Comparable keys | Unchanged | Higher / lower | Median abs. | P90 abs. | Median % | P90 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 → R2 | MBBS | 1,095 | 444 (40.5%) | 622 / 29 | 1,182 | 29,760 | 2.54% | 33.42% |
| R2 → R3 | MBBS | 1,105 | 808 (73.1%) | 287 / 10 | 0 | 4,036 | 0.00% | 7.41% |
| R1 → R2 | BDS | 111 | 24 (21.6%) | 85 / 2 | 7,671 | 36,040 | 5.67% | 23.92% |
| R2 → R3 | BDS | 109 | 63 (57.8%) | 40 / 6 | 0 | 21,424 | 0.00% | 14.28% |
Three findings that stand out
MBBS R2→R3 was much quieter in the middle of the distribution
The median absolute movement was zero and 808 of 1,105 exact MBBS keys were unchanged. Even so, the p90 movement was 4,036 ranks, so “unchanged overall” does not mean every category stayed fixed.
BDS R1→R2 moved more at the median
Across 111 comparable BDS keys, median absolute movement was 7,671 ranks versus 1,182 for MBBS. This is a programme-level historical comparison, not evidence that BDS will always be more volatile.
Tail movement remained important
R1→R2 p90 absolute movement was 29,760 ranks for MBBS and 36,040 for BDS. Students relying on one previous-round cutoff can therefore miss meaningful category-specific movement.
Large exact-key movements: useful context, not typical outcomes
These examples preserve the programme, college and category responsible for the movement. They are deliberately separated from the median-based headline findings.
| Rounds | Programme | College | Category | From | To | Movement | % move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 → R2 | MBBS | RGMC KALVA THANE | PWD-NTB | 5,05,311 | 12,05,962 | +7,00,651 | 138.66% |
| R1 → R2 | BDS | GDC NAGPUR | PWD-OPEN | 3,50,780 | 11,13,178 | +7,62,398 | 217.34% |
| R1 → R2 | BDS | GDC JALGAON | NTB | 1,07,328 | 2,14,365 | +1,07,037 | 99.73% |
How students should use this research
Use the exact category. A college-level assumption can hide very different movement across OPEN, reserved and PWD keys.
Do not treat an unchanged previous round as a guarantee.R2→R3 MBBS was often unchanged, but hundreds of exact keys still moved.
Prefer distributions over single extremes. Median and p90 values explain the broader dataset better than the largest movement.
Use 2025 as historical evidence only. Current seat matrices and counselling behaviour should drive current decisions.
Frequently asked questions
Did most Maharashtra MBBS cutoffs move between Round 2 and Round 3?
No. In this 2025 dataset, 808 of 1,105 comparable MBBS keys were unchanged between Round 2 and Round 3. That is about 73.1%, although individual categories still showed substantial movement.
Does a higher numeric closing rank mean admission became easier?
Not automatically. It only means the closing rank number increased for that exact college, programme, category and seat-group key. Candidate behaviour, seat availability and category rules still matter.
Why not headline the largest rank movement?
The largest changes are outliers and often occur in narrow categories such as PWD. AdmiScan uses medians, p90 movement and sample sizes for the main findings, then shows extremes separately as context.
Can Maharashtra NEET 2025 cutoff movement predict 2026?
No. This page is historical analysis. Current counselling rules, seat matrices and candidate behaviour can change, so 2025 movement should be used as context rather than a forecast.