NRI
6,984 median
28 exact P1→P2 matches across 20 colleges. p90 was 8,944.4 and maximum movement reached 10,533. 27 of 28 exact matches relaxed.
AdmiScan Data Moat #19
Kerala NEET 2025 MBBS seat-group cutoff volatility
Government, State Merit, NRI, All India Merit and Minority seats did not move alike during Kerala's 2025 MBBS counselling. Exact college-category matching shows that NRI movement was especially wide in Phase 1→2, while Government cutoffs were much more stable at the median.
5
seat groups compared
6,984
NRI P1→P2 median
0
Government median in both transitions
0
duplicate exact cutoff keys
Rank metric: Kerala State Medical Rank, not NEET AIR
Every movement below is measured in Kerala State Medical Rank positions. CEE Kerala's medical rank list is based on NEET (UG) 2025 rank but separately publishes a Kerala State Rank, so these values must not be described as NEET All India Rank movement.
NRI movement dominated Phase 1→2
Government
0 median
Government had a zero median in both P1→P2 and P2→P3. The tails were not zero: p90 was 762.1 in P1→P2 and 209 in P2→P3.
State Merit
864 median
State Merit had 197 exact P1→P2 matches and 200 P2→P3 matches. Median movement dropped from 864 to 91.5 between the transitions.
Full seat-group comparison
| Seat group | P1→P2 matches | P1→P2 median | P1→P2 p90 | P1→P2 max | P2→P3 matches | P2→P3 median | P2→P3 p90 | P2→P3 max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 190 | 0 | 762.1 | 6,373 | 211 | 0 | 209 | 2,888 |
| State Merit | 197 | 864 | 2,215 | 3,857 | 200 | 91.5 | 1,293.2 | 5,325 |
| NRI | 28 | 6,984 | 8,944.4 | 10,533 | 28 | 82.5 | 3,079.9 | 7,126 |
| All India Merit | 20 | 520 | 939.2 | 1,344 | 20 | 228.5 | 463.3 | 841 |
| Minority | 13 | 1,625 | 2,017.4 | 2,066 | 13 | 592 | 1,517.4 | 2,180 |
Direction of movement
| Seat group | P1→P2 relaxed | P1→P2 tightened | P1→P2 unchanged | P2→P3 relaxed | P2→P3 tightened | P2→P3 unchanged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 93 | 0 | 97 | 48 | 2 | 161 |
| State Merit | 162 | 0 | 35 | 105 | 0 | 95 |
| NRI | 27 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 12 |
| All India Merit | 20 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| Minority | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
What this means for counselling analysis
A single statewide cutoff margin is a poor substitute for seat-group evidence. The P1→P2 median ranged from zero in Government to 6,984 in NRI. Even after the statewide median stabilized by P2→P3, NRI still had a p90 movement of 3,079.9 and a maximum exact movement of 7,126. AdmiScan therefore keeps seat-group context rather than applying one volatility assumption to every Kerala MBBS seat.
Methodology and limitations
Each transition uses exact college code + MBBS + seat group + category matches. A comparison is created only when the same exact key appears in both adjacent counselling phases.
The underlying verified evidence contained zero duplicate exact keys. Missing combinations are not interpolated or manufactured.
Median, p90 and maximum values are absolute Kerala State Medical Rank movements. “Relaxed” means the later closing state rank was numerically higher; “tightened” means it was lower.
Historical movement is descriptive evidence, not an admission probability or guarantee. Verify current allotment documents with the Commissioner for Entrance Examinations, Kerala.
Frequently asked questions
Which Kerala MBBS seat group moved the most from Phase 1 to Phase 2 in 2025?
NRI had the largest median absolute movement in this exact matched sample: 6,984 Kerala state-rank positions across 28 comparisons. Its p90 movement was 8,944.4 and its maximum exact movement was 10,533.
Were Government MBBS cutoffs stable across Kerala counselling phases?
Government had a median absolute movement of zero in both adjacent transitions in this sample. However, its p90 was 762.1 from Phase 1 to Phase 2 and 209 from Phase 2 to Phase 3, so some exact category-level cutoffs still moved materially.
How did State Merit MBBS cutoffs move in Kerala 2025?
State Merit had 197 exact Phase 1 to Phase 2 comparisons with a median absolute movement of 864 and p90 of 2,215. From Phase 2 to Phase 3, 200 exact comparisons had a median of 91.5 and p90 of 1,293.2.
Are these seat-group movements measured in NEET All India Rank?
No. This analysis uses Kerala State Medical Rank. CEE Kerala's medical rank list is based on NEET (UG) 2025 rank but separately publishes a Kerala State Rank.
How are seat-group movements matched?
AdmiScan compares only exact college-MBBS-seat-group-category keys that exist in both adjacent phases. Missing combinations are not manufactured, and the verified evidence contained zero duplicate exact keys.
Compare the statewide phase movement, the college-level volatility, and the category-wise volatility. Then use the Kerala NEET admission audit.