AdmiScan Data Moat #14

Karnataka NEET 2025 category-wise cutoff volatility

Among the 20 publishable Government profiles, 912 of 1,012 exact R1→R2 keys closed at a higher AIR and 100 were unchanged; none closed lower. R2→R3 remained strongly higher for supported Government profiles, while supported Private and Other profiles were more mixed.

1,615

all matched R1→R2 keys

338

all matched R2→R3 keys

24

publishable R1→R2 profiles

10

publishable R2→R3 profiles

What changed between rounds?

  • • R1→R2 Government: 912 higher, zero lower and 100 unchanged across the 20 supported category profiles.
  • • R1→R2 Private: all 105 matched keys across GMP, GMPH and OPN closed at a higher AIR.
  • • R2→R3 Government: 109 of 112 supported matches closed higher; the SCG p90 absolute movement reached 125,147 AIR.
  • • R2→R3 Private: 49 of 80 matches closed higher and 31 lower, so the later-round pattern was not one-directional.
  • • OTH stayed separate: its R2→R3 median signed movement was −20,012 AIR while median absolute volatility was 122,300.

R1→R2 category volatility

Publication requires at least 30 exact keys matched across the same college, programme, seat group and category. “Higher” means the later closing AIR was numerically higher; absolute metrics measure movement size regardless of direction.

Seat groupCodeMatchedHigher / lower / sameMedian signedMedian absolutep90 absoluteMaximum
Government1G5751 / 0 / 6+9,3259,32516,48328,486
Government2AG6360 / 0 / 3+10,00610,00614,54720,710
Government2AH4137 / 0 / 4+13,40713,40718,95023,332
Government2AK3023 / 0 / 7+8,0268,02623,56030,663
Government2AR5551 / 0 / 4+11,83711,83716,40621,633
Government2BG5854 / 0 / 4+11,70611,70620,35528,775
Government3AG5654 / 0 / 2+9,4309,43014,63417,886
Government3BG6058 / 0 / 2+11,44011,44017,47726,858
Government3BR3029 / 0 / 1+8,0048,00413,52218,155
GovernmentGM6363 / 0 / 0+9,0639,06314,07216,950
GovernmentGMH5651 / 0 / 5+10,41610,41618,08031,197
GovernmentGMK5433 / 0 / 21+1,4861,48622,53230,292
GovernmentGMR6358 / 0 / 5+7,9667,96614,60321,405
GovernmentGMRH3127 / 0 / 4+14,00914,00918,13332,517
GovernmentSCG6360 / 0 / 3+16,39316,39326,87635,967
GovernmentSCH4437 / 0 / 7+16,88216,88232,82857,725
GovernmentSCK3220 / 0 / 12+13,31513,31531,04266,382
GovernmentSCR5855 / 0 / 3+23,04523,04536,00941,762
GovernmentSTG6158 / 0 / 3+21,54821,54833,96858,983
GovernmentSTR3733 / 0 / 4+24,34524,34541,17352,874
OtherOTH3434 / 0 / 0+696,458696,458878,248963,595
PrivateGMP3535 / 0 / 0+16,98016,980227,264341,636
PrivateGMPH3535 / 0 / 0+28,42428,424357,718448,632
PrivateOPN3535 / 0 / 0+32,08032,080154,097329,764

R2→R3 category volatility

Because Round 3 is smaller, publication requires at least 10 exact matched keys. These ten supported profiles should not be generalized to categories below the threshold.

Seat groupCodeMatchedHigher / lower / sameMedian signedMedian absolutep90 absoluteMaximum
Government2AG1918 / 1 / 0+4,2944,29414,33717,589
GovernmentGM3131 / 0 / 0+7,6417,64121,73549,909
GovernmentGMH1514 / 1 / 0+9,5199,51921,59179,941
GovernmentGMR1515 / 0 / 0+8,4068,40612,61413,207
GovernmentSCG2020 / 0 / 0+10,85610,856125,147136,694
GovernmentSTG1211 / 1 / 0+14,13814,13852,373112,126
OtherOTH3614 / 22 / 0-20,012122,300327,072445,361
PrivateGMP3022 / 8 / 0+3,1557,14078,278248,315
PrivateGMPH1911 / 8 / 0+7,36020,54574,373158,754
PrivateOPN3116 / 15 / 0+3458,04296,801198,952

Category codes and interpretation

Codes such as GM, GMH, GMR, 2AG, SCG, GMP and OPN are preserved exactly from the source. AdmiScan does not infer their eligibility meanings. Verify current definitions and reservation eligibility in the applicable Karnataka Examinations Authority bulletin.

NRI is absent because it did not meet either publication threshold. Other/OTH is shown separately and is never pooled with Government or Private evidence.

Methodology and limitations

Scope: 19,357 verified Karnataka NEET 2025 MBBS rows, canonicalized to one maximum observed closing AIR per round-college-programme-seat-group-category key. The dataset contains 3,644 canonical keys across 66 colleges.

Matching: R1→R2 and R2→R3 comparisons require the same college, programme, seat group and category code. The analysis found 1,615 and 338 exact matches respectively; duplicate checks returned zero.

Signed movement is later AIR minus earlier AIR. Positive values mean the later closing AIR was higher; negative values mean it was lower. Volatility uses absolute movement, summarized with median, p90 and maximum.

Historical movement is not a forecast or admission guarantee. Rules, seat matrices, demand and candidate behaviour can change.

Frequently asked questions

How volatile was the Karnataka NEET 2025 GM cutoff?

For 63 exact GM keys matched from R1 to R2, the median absolute movement was 9,063 AIR and p90 was 14,072. For 31 exact GM keys matched from R2 to R3, the median absolute movement was 7,641 and p90 was 21,735.

Which supported Government category was most volatile from R1 to R2?

STR had the largest median absolute movement among the 20 publishable Government profiles at 24,345 AIR. This ranking is based on median absolute movement, not the largest single outlier.

Why do these numbers differ from the category-wise cutoff profile page?

This page compares the same exact keys across adjacent rounds. The profile page compares aggregate round medians, whose college populations can differ. The two methods answer different questions.

Why is NRI absent from the category-volatility tables?

No NRI category profile met the publication thresholds of 30 matched R1-to-R2 keys or 10 matched R2-to-R3 keys, so it was excluded rather than presented as stable evidence.

Compare the category-wise cutoff profiles, seat-group profiles, and the broader Karnataka volatility study. See all AdmiScan research or read the methodology.