AdmiScan Data Moat #15
Across 1,953 exact adjacent-round college-category-seat-group matches, typical cutoff movement stayed similar between R1→R2 and R2→R3, while the later-round tail became much wider. This page compares colleges only where the same key can be matched across adjacent rounds.
1,953
exact adjacent-round matches
65
colleges with matched evidence
62
college profiles with ≥15 matches
52
colleges represented in both transitions
Median absolute movement was 11,820 AIR across 1,615 R1→R2 matches and 10,837 across 338 R2→R3 matches. The typical movement was therefore similar. But p90 absolute movement rose from 32,043 to 111,465 AIR, showing a much wider extreme tail among the smaller later-round sample.
| Transition | Matched | Colleges | Median absolute | p90 absolute | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1→R2 | 1,615 | 64 | 11,820 | 32,043 | 963,595 |
| R2→R3 | 338 | 53 | 10,837 | 111,465 | 510,042 |
Round 3 has a much smaller comparable population, so AdmiScan does not treat the two transitions as equally representative or use the combined ranking as a prediction of future rounds.
Publication requires at least 15 exact adjacent-round matches for this college-level ranking. Ranking uses median absolute movement, not the single largest outlier.
| College | Code | Matched | Median absolute | p90 absolute | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sri Madhusudan Sai Institute of Medical Sciences and Research | M093 | 20 | 19,342 | 217,069 | 418,929 |
| Dr. Chandramma Dayananda Sagar Institute of Medical Education | M083 | 27 | 17,634 | 211,255 | 591,201 |
| Akash Institute of Medical Sciences and Research Centre | M078 | 24 | 17,602 | 81,069 | 770,668 |
| Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Medical College | M002 | 25 | 16,920 | 37,979 | 511,375 |
| East Point College of Medical Sciences and Research Center | M081 | 30 | 16,919 | 32,241 | 911,988 |
| PES University Institute of Medical Sceinces and Research | M094 | 25 | 16,532 | 150,907 | 950,531 |
| Adichunchanagiri Institute of Medical Sciences | M023 | 33 | 16,116 | 140,036 | 652,960 |
| SRI CHAMUNDESHWARI MEDICAL COLLEGE | M091 | 27 | 15,564 | 108,692 | 615,573 |
| Raichur Institute of Medical Sciences | M045 | 32 | 15,218 | 31,564 | 163,766 |
| Father Muller Institute of Med. Education & Research | M050 | 22 | 14,969 | 57,885 | 256,204 |
“Lowest” does not mean safe, stable or predictable. For example, a zero median can coexist with a much larger p90 movement, which is why tail statistics remain visible beside the median.
| College | Code | Matched | Median absolute | p90 absolute | Maximum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.S.Hegde Medical Academy | M053 | 15 | 0 | 17,380 | 21,324 |
| Kasturba Medical College | M051 | 19 | 0 | 36,436 | 79,941 |
| ESI Medical College | M066 | 22 | 220 | 11,347 | 15,832 |
| Bangalore Medical College | M001 | 34 | 1,637 | 24,559 | 96,126 |
| Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences | M031 | 30 | 3,117 | 13,764 | 42,266 |
| Mandya Institute of Medical Sciences | M024 | 33 | 4,110 | 35,177 | 128,237 |
| Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee Institute of Medical Science | M082 | 28 | 4,611 | 32,498 | 136,694 |
| M.S.Ramaiah Medical College | M004 | 27 | 4,729 | 103,584 | 169,700 |
| Mysore Medical College | M021 | 32 | 5,236 | 34,209 | 139,240 |
| Jaya Jagadguru Murugharajendra Medical College | M061 | 31 | 5,412 | 25,819 | 720,888 |
Source scope: Karnataka NEET 2025 MBBS closing-rank keys from the verified AdmiScan neet_closing_ranks view. The evidence contained 1,625 Round 1 rows across 64 colleges, 1,672 Round 2 rows across 66 colleges, and 347 Round 3 rows across 53 colleges.
Matching requires the same college code, MBBS programme, seat group and category across adjacent rounds. The evidence produced 1,615 R1→R2 and 338 R2→R3 comparisons; duplicate exact keys were zero.
College ranking on this page requires at least 15 exact matched movements. 62 college profiles met that threshold and 60 had at least 20 comparisons. The combined profile can contain one or both adjacent-round transitions, so transition-level statistics are shown separately above.
Historical cutoff movement is not a forecast, admission probability or guarantee. Verify current categories, eligibility, seat matrices and counselling rules with the Karnataka Examinations Authority.
Among colleges with at least 15 exact adjacent-round matches, Sri Madhusudan Sai Institute of Medical Sciences and Research had the largest combined median absolute movement at 19,342 AIR. This is a historical matched-key statistic, not a forecast of future cutoffs.
No. A low median only describes the middle historical matched-key movement in this 2025 sample. Tail movement can still be much larger, and future counselling rules, demand and seat matrices can change.
The exact matched sample falls from 1,615 comparisons in Round 1 to Round 2 to 338 in Round 2 to Round 3. Keeping transition-level statistics separate prevents the smaller Round 3 population from being presented as equally representative.
Each comparison requires the same college code, MBBS programme, seat group and category in two adjacent rounds. Duplicate exact keys were zero in the evidence query.
Compare the category-wise volatility study, the broader Karnataka cutoff-volatility study, the cutoff-movement report, the Kerala 2025 MBBS phase-movement study (which uses a different state-rank metric), or all AdmiScan research. Read the methodology before using historical evidence in a choice list.